Guides
Apocalypse Prepping - Concise SHTF guide to prepare for AGI doomsday
Started by prepper · May 8, 2023
We can kill bacteria and vaccinate against viruses inside your body. We have nothing for fungi. They keep evolving to live at higher temperatures.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01112-0
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01112-0
Tried to email this, but seems Proton doesn't like TorBox. So here it is (in two parts because I got wordy)
Here's my critique.
While there has obviously been a lot of effort put into thinking out this
guide, it is failing in one very major way: timescale.
You have effectively planned to ride out an event that lasts, at most, a
year before some kind of return to normalcy. This is a critical error.
Normalcy will not return. As the pandemic clearly demonstrated, global
supply lies are already stretched to breaking. Everything is so reliant on
things from around the world that when it falls, it will all fall with no
hope of coming back in any meaningful way. We are facing a Class 2
Apocalypse Event (global societal collapse). Even if AI doesn't cause it,
*something* eventually will.
With that in mind it means most of the guide is horribly misaimed. You
shouldn't be trying to just outlive the people around you. You will need
to build them up into a self sustaining community.
I will skip over the Threat and What to Expect sections as they are both
fantastically speculative. That doesn't mean they are inherently wrong,
just that they are ultimately irrelevant in the face of long-term
survival.
The Plan:
The vast majority of this entire section is hostile, xenophobic, and will
result in your untimely demise. That demise will be at least nine months
from the collapse (assuming your planning works flawlessly), but it will
still be a demise. The question it fails to confront is "What happens when
your supplies run out?" You have just spent the better part of a year
hoarding survival to yourself behind a wall of guns. Actions like that
will not be forgotten by those you've spent that time denying help to.
Instead, the focus should be on becoming a producer of some valuable
resource to your local community. This will mean you might have to tighten
your belt some times, but is a much better long-term solution. You won't
need to stockpile food or supplies if you can trade for it.
One thing it did get right is that you will want to bring in people on
your plan. The more people you can build into a self-sustaining community,
the stronger it will be regardless of what the outside world is doing. It
also means each of you will be able to specialize your skills better.
Learn subsistence farming. Learn basic machining and blacksmithing. Learn
first aid. Learn animal husbandry. The more useful you are to more people,
the better off you will be.
This is not to say stockpiling supplies isn't important. The fall,
regardless of being fast or a slow decades-long event, will have rough
patches. Having stocks of emergency supplies is going to be vital to
smoothing those over. Just what those supplies are will be discussed in
the next sections.
Water
Here again we are faced with short term solutions. Focus instead on long
term sustainable practices. In this case, make a charcoal/sand filter.
Take a barrel with no lid. put a hole in the bottom with your collection
pot under it. In the barrel put a layer of crushed charcoal (make sure you
learn how to make more). Then a layer of sand, a layer of gravel and a
layer of rocks. Pour your water through this to filter it. Change out the
filter every month or so. Lastly, boil your filtered water before use.
This process is much more sustainable than iodine/chlorine/store bought
filters. Even in the most water starved areas, there are sources that can
be used (rain, rivers/lakes, canals, wells, etc) so stockpiling is not
likely to be very important, but production on demand is. The filter will
be large and bulky, but that's fine. Build it in a public place and let
the public use it. This will increase your value even more.
Food
This is where subsistence farming and animal husbandry will really shine
for you. Learn them or make sure someone in your group has learned them.
But beyond that...
This is the first bit where I will preach stockpiling. Food production,
even in the best of times, is a cyclic thing. Make sure you have enough to
last you through the growing season until harvest. Study preservation
techniques. Smoking, curing, sausages, canning, etc. Practice them. Know
them.
For plants, find what grows well in your area. Even if drinking water is
easy to produce, irrigation uses a lot more (does not need filtering at
least) and getting it from source to field can present issues The less you
have to work to make stuff grow, the better. Just what you grow is going
to depend greatly on where you live. About the only exception to that are
potatoes and onions. These are hearty, high-yield plants that grow just
about anywhere and require next to no skill. Share them with your
neighbors to help them get a fast start on food production (potatoes alone
will give you almost everything you need to survive except protein). Also
find out what grows naturally in your area. Local wilderness survival
guides are your friend here. Teach the people around you what to forage
for and how. The faster you can get the people around you self sufficient,
the more important you will be to them *and* the less they will be reliant
on you.
For animals, chickens and goats are probably your best options. They can
both live in urban and suburban space. They both will eat any scraps left
over from your own food (or otherwise). They are both excellent foragers in
their own right (if your situation allows them to roam). They both produce
food without needing to kill them (eggs and milk). Their poop makes
excellent fertilizer.
In this scenario you are not hiding in fear from the community, you are
building yourself into an indispensable resource for them. You will need
to share your stockpile with them, but because you're the one who's
producing the food to begin with this gives you a strong bargaining
position that you at least save enough for yourself and have the community
support you in it.
Weapons
Repeat after me: "guns are not the answer to everything". In fact, in the
vast majority of situations, the threat of deadly violence is going to
make a situation worse in the long term. This is in no small part due to
the fact that after you run out of ammo, you have an expensive stick. 500
rounds might sound like a decent stockpile but will disappear in *days*
even with only a single person using it. Keep in mind, we are planning for
*decades*. Your fancy short barrel suppressed S&W with collapsible stock,
scope and night vision will mean dick all if there's nothing to put in it.
That doesn't mean guns are *useless*, but we need to step back and try to
figure out what you actually need the guns for.
You could use them for siege defense. Once. It'll chew through your ammo
stockpile so fast your head will spin. Then you'll get horribly murdered
by the rest of the siege group. This is absolutely a last resort option
and if you're facing this kind of situation, it may be best to consider
packing up everything you can carry and sneaking out the back door in the
middle of the night.
You could use them to raid other people for supplies. This will work until
you run out of ammo. Then you've got every last community in your area
looking to skin you alive. Would not recommend for anything but an
emergency.
You could use them to defend against raiders while traveling. Until your
ammo runs out. This is probably the best option and your ammo stockpile
could potentially last years (or be gone in a month). In this case you
could still carry the empty gun to warn off people who don't know it's
empty.
You could use it for hunting. In this case a pistol is just crap and a
5.56 round is even crappier. It was specifically designed as an
anti-personnel round. It has horrible stopping power and is designed to
wound and maim rather than kill. That deer you shot? It's going to run off
and die of infection a week later. No venison for you. That rabbit? You
just hamburgered half the poor thing. And after you run out of ammo? Best
learn how to use a bow and set snares.
So the big thing here is ammo. Instead of trying to be G.I. Tacticool, be
practical. A high powered hunting rifle easily doubles as a sniper
weapon, is much more effective on its targets and much leaner on ammo. It
would still be a 'special situation' tool, however. Ammo is, after all,
not replaceable.
And even better option would be a muzzle loader. Black powder is
surprisingly easy to manufacture and lead rounds easy to cast using a heat
source as low as a camp fire. Keep track of your percussion caps so you
can re-charge them (or even learn to press-form your own). You'll have a
rifle that'd still be usable when you pass it down to your grand kids.
And what of the pistol? Get a Colt single-action Navy. It's a six-round
black powder revolver. Again, solves the ammo issue. And if you find
yourself in a defensive situation that can't be gotten out of with six
rounds, you're probably in a bigger situation than you can handle.
Moving on, a machete is an excellent suggestion. They are useful for FAR
more than just weapons. They are also simple enough that even a completely
untrained person can use it relatively effectively. They are also easy to
manufacture so if something happens to the ones you have, you can replace
them.
A fixed blade knife is... questionable at best. The range they are useful
at in combat is so close that it is horrifically dangerous for all parties
involved. Best to back off and re-engage with the machette or baseball
bat.
Here's my critique.
While there has obviously been a lot of effort put into thinking out this
guide, it is failing in one very major way: timescale.
You have effectively planned to ride out an event that lasts, at most, a
year before some kind of return to normalcy. This is a critical error.
Normalcy will not return. As the pandemic clearly demonstrated, global
supply lies are already stretched to breaking. Everything is so reliant on
things from around the world that when it falls, it will all fall with no
hope of coming back in any meaningful way. We are facing a Class 2
Apocalypse Event (global societal collapse). Even if AI doesn't cause it,
*something* eventually will.
With that in mind it means most of the guide is horribly misaimed. You
shouldn't be trying to just outlive the people around you. You will need
to build them up into a self sustaining community.
I will skip over the Threat and What to Expect sections as they are both
fantastically speculative. That doesn't mean they are inherently wrong,
just that they are ultimately irrelevant in the face of long-term
survival.
The Plan:
The vast majority of this entire section is hostile, xenophobic, and will
result in your untimely demise. That demise will be at least nine months
from the collapse (assuming your planning works flawlessly), but it will
still be a demise. The question it fails to confront is "What happens when
your supplies run out?" You have just spent the better part of a year
hoarding survival to yourself behind a wall of guns. Actions like that
will not be forgotten by those you've spent that time denying help to.
Instead, the focus should be on becoming a producer of some valuable
resource to your local community. This will mean you might have to tighten
your belt some times, but is a much better long-term solution. You won't
need to stockpile food or supplies if you can trade for it.
One thing it did get right is that you will want to bring in people on
your plan. The more people you can build into a self-sustaining community,
the stronger it will be regardless of what the outside world is doing. It
also means each of you will be able to specialize your skills better.
Learn subsistence farming. Learn basic machining and blacksmithing. Learn
first aid. Learn animal husbandry. The more useful you are to more people,
the better off you will be.
This is not to say stockpiling supplies isn't important. The fall,
regardless of being fast or a slow decades-long event, will have rough
patches. Having stocks of emergency supplies is going to be vital to
smoothing those over. Just what those supplies are will be discussed in
the next sections.
Water
Here again we are faced with short term solutions. Focus instead on long
term sustainable practices. In this case, make a charcoal/sand filter.
Take a barrel with no lid. put a hole in the bottom with your collection
pot under it. In the barrel put a layer of crushed charcoal (make sure you
learn how to make more). Then a layer of sand, a layer of gravel and a
layer of rocks. Pour your water through this to filter it. Change out the
filter every month or so. Lastly, boil your filtered water before use.
This process is much more sustainable than iodine/chlorine/store bought
filters. Even in the most water starved areas, there are sources that can
be used (rain, rivers/lakes, canals, wells, etc) so stockpiling is not
likely to be very important, but production on demand is. The filter will
be large and bulky, but that's fine. Build it in a public place and let
the public use it. This will increase your value even more.
Food
This is where subsistence farming and animal husbandry will really shine
for you. Learn them or make sure someone in your group has learned them.
But beyond that...
This is the first bit where I will preach stockpiling. Food production,
even in the best of times, is a cyclic thing. Make sure you have enough to
last you through the growing season until harvest. Study preservation
techniques. Smoking, curing, sausages, canning, etc. Practice them. Know
them.
For plants, find what grows well in your area. Even if drinking water is
easy to produce, irrigation uses a lot more (does not need filtering at
least) and getting it from source to field can present issues The less you
have to work to make stuff grow, the better. Just what you grow is going
to depend greatly on where you live. About the only exception to that are
potatoes and onions. These are hearty, high-yield plants that grow just
about anywhere and require next to no skill. Share them with your
neighbors to help them get a fast start on food production (potatoes alone
will give you almost everything you need to survive except protein). Also
find out what grows naturally in your area. Local wilderness survival
guides are your friend here. Teach the people around you what to forage
for and how. The faster you can get the people around you self sufficient,
the more important you will be to them *and* the less they will be reliant
on you.
For animals, chickens and goats are probably your best options. They can
both live in urban and suburban space. They both will eat any scraps left
over from your own food (or otherwise). They are both excellent foragers in
their own right (if your situation allows them to roam). They both produce
food without needing to kill them (eggs and milk). Their poop makes
excellent fertilizer.
In this scenario you are not hiding in fear from the community, you are
building yourself into an indispensable resource for them. You will need
to share your stockpile with them, but because you're the one who's
producing the food to begin with this gives you a strong bargaining
position that you at least save enough for yourself and have the community
support you in it.
Weapons
Repeat after me: "guns are not the answer to everything". In fact, in the
vast majority of situations, the threat of deadly violence is going to
make a situation worse in the long term. This is in no small part due to
the fact that after you run out of ammo, you have an expensive stick. 500
rounds might sound like a decent stockpile but will disappear in *days*
even with only a single person using it. Keep in mind, we are planning for
*decades*. Your fancy short barrel suppressed S&W with collapsible stock,
scope and night vision will mean dick all if there's nothing to put in it.
That doesn't mean guns are *useless*, but we need to step back and try to
figure out what you actually need the guns for.
You could use them for siege defense. Once. It'll chew through your ammo
stockpile so fast your head will spin. Then you'll get horribly murdered
by the rest of the siege group. This is absolutely a last resort option
and if you're facing this kind of situation, it may be best to consider
packing up everything you can carry and sneaking out the back door in the
middle of the night.
You could use them to raid other people for supplies. This will work until
you run out of ammo. Then you've got every last community in your area
looking to skin you alive. Would not recommend for anything but an
emergency.
You could use them to defend against raiders while traveling. Until your
ammo runs out. This is probably the best option and your ammo stockpile
could potentially last years (or be gone in a month). In this case you
could still carry the empty gun to warn off people who don't know it's
empty.
You could use it for hunting. In this case a pistol is just crap and a
5.56 round is even crappier. It was specifically designed as an
anti-personnel round. It has horrible stopping power and is designed to
wound and maim rather than kill. That deer you shot? It's going to run off
and die of infection a week later. No venison for you. That rabbit? You
just hamburgered half the poor thing. And after you run out of ammo? Best
learn how to use a bow and set snares.
So the big thing here is ammo. Instead of trying to be G.I. Tacticool, be
practical. A high powered hunting rifle easily doubles as a sniper
weapon, is much more effective on its targets and much leaner on ammo. It
would still be a 'special situation' tool, however. Ammo is, after all,
not replaceable.
And even better option would be a muzzle loader. Black powder is
surprisingly easy to manufacture and lead rounds easy to cast using a heat
source as low as a camp fire. Keep track of your percussion caps so you
can re-charge them (or even learn to press-form your own). You'll have a
rifle that'd still be usable when you pass it down to your grand kids.
And what of the pistol? Get a Colt single-action Navy. It's a six-round
black powder revolver. Again, solves the ammo issue. And if you find
yourself in a defensive situation that can't be gotten out of with six
rounds, you're probably in a bigger situation than you can handle.
Moving on, a machete is an excellent suggestion. They are useful for FAR
more than just weapons. They are also simple enough that even a completely
untrained person can use it relatively effectively. They are also easy to
manufacture so if something happens to the ones you have, you can replace
them.
A fixed blade knife is... questionable at best. The range they are useful
at in combat is so close that it is horrifically dangerous for all parties
involved. Best to back off and re-engage with the machette or baseball
bat.
The pepper spray confuses me. What possible use would you have for it that
wouldn't be better served by other means? Also, you can't refill them.
Once they're used, they are useless.
A bow and arrow, in the hands of a skilled user is a fantastic hunting
tool. They can be used in the capacity of a weapon, but only really work
well that way when massed together. The real advantage here is that ammo
is relatively easy to manufacture and generally reusable.
A crossbow is a bit of a mixed bag. They have a much lower skill
threshold than bows to be used, are physically easier to draw, and don't
require the user to hold that draw until release. Like bows, the ammo is
easy to manufacture and generally reusable. Unlike bows, they don't make
great hunting weapons as the bolts are lighter than arrows. They would
likely be best suited as sidearms for protection while traveling. I'd
rather have a six shooter though.
At the end of this section is the one point in the entire article where
you suggest attacking and killing people might not be a good idea. The
rest seems like it was written by someone who had watched far too much The
Walking Dead. In case it wasn't clear from everything I've written up to
this point, your best option for survival is going to be working with and
becoming a valuable member of your community, not fighting them.
Equipment
I feel this section best demonstrates the disconnect on time scales. The
emphasis on thinking everyone is out to get you continues through here as
well. Again, your best defense against the community attacking you is to
make yourself more valuable to them as you are.
You have essentially built a very robust emergency response kit. We are
looking at the collapse of global society, not an earthquake. Emergency
response kits are very important, especially since the collapse of society
means there likely will not be any kind of outside emergency response.
However, it lacks the foresight of "we can't replace the things we use".
Instead of stockpiling irreplacable items, plan for what you're going to
do when they are gone.
This brings up more skills that could be learned to make yourself more
valuable. Learn how to make rope. Learn to distill alcohol (and not just
for drinking, but if you're "the booze guy", that's going to be quite the
feather in your cap). Alcohol has a whole list of uses particularly as a
flammable material and a disinfectant. If you have a flex-fuel vehicle, you
can drive it on distilled alcohol, for example.
and now to to fuel storage, vehicle use, electricity generation...
Don't worry about fuel storage. You are unlikely to ever be able to
replenish it in any meaningful amount anyways. And if you *can* replenish
it, the storage is redundant. For this same reason, don't worry with
gas/diesel generators. They'll just burn up your fuel and be dead weight.
Instead, get a solar setup for your house. With a back-up battery this
will give you electricity even if the grid goes down. It will also let you
charge an electric car. If you are in need of mobile mains power, a couple
300 watt panels and a Bluetti power station is your best option. Don't
use lead-acid batteries for storage. They simply degrade too fast. A good
li-ion setup, although more expensive will last much longer with much
better energy density.
And, because I've been harping on it this whole time, all these bits are
basically unreplacable (aside from salvaging other systems for parts).
They should last you 15-20 years though, and if you haven't figured out a
replacement by then, you're doing it wrong.
On pedal crank chargers, unless you have a ROBUST food supply, don't. Do
not. You are expending personal energy for electrical energy. And that
personal energy is coming from your food. Instead hook it to a windmill or
water wheel.
Your digital section here is the one bit I can just nod along with. Expect
to lose the internet. Expect to lose mains power. Expect to have the only
information available to you that which you have saved.
But don't forget to visit your local library too.
Medical
This, again, runs into being a very short term solution. The advice isn't
inherently wrong, but when your meds are gone, they are gone. Make sure to
study up on first aid and emergency trauma response. Also find out what
local plants make at least passible substitutes. This is, in fact, one of
those skills that is in-depth enough that you will likely want to have at
least one person dedicated to it and it alone. There's a reason villages
had "the healer" and not just everybody trained in first aid.
wouldn't be better served by other means? Also, you can't refill them.
Once they're used, they are useless.
A bow and arrow, in the hands of a skilled user is a fantastic hunting
tool. They can be used in the capacity of a weapon, but only really work
well that way when massed together. The real advantage here is that ammo
is relatively easy to manufacture and generally reusable.
A crossbow is a bit of a mixed bag. They have a much lower skill
threshold than bows to be used, are physically easier to draw, and don't
require the user to hold that draw until release. Like bows, the ammo is
easy to manufacture and generally reusable. Unlike bows, they don't make
great hunting weapons as the bolts are lighter than arrows. They would
likely be best suited as sidearms for protection while traveling. I'd
rather have a six shooter though.
At the end of this section is the one point in the entire article where
you suggest attacking and killing people might not be a good idea. The
rest seems like it was written by someone who had watched far too much The
Walking Dead. In case it wasn't clear from everything I've written up to
this point, your best option for survival is going to be working with and
becoming a valuable member of your community, not fighting them.
Equipment
I feel this section best demonstrates the disconnect on time scales. The
emphasis on thinking everyone is out to get you continues through here as
well. Again, your best defense against the community attacking you is to
make yourself more valuable to them as you are.
You have essentially built a very robust emergency response kit. We are
looking at the collapse of global society, not an earthquake. Emergency
response kits are very important, especially since the collapse of society
means there likely will not be any kind of outside emergency response.
However, it lacks the foresight of "we can't replace the things we use".
Instead of stockpiling irreplacable items, plan for what you're going to
do when they are gone.
This brings up more skills that could be learned to make yourself more
valuable. Learn how to make rope. Learn to distill alcohol (and not just
for drinking, but if you're "the booze guy", that's going to be quite the
feather in your cap). Alcohol has a whole list of uses particularly as a
flammable material and a disinfectant. If you have a flex-fuel vehicle, you
can drive it on distilled alcohol, for example.
and now to to fuel storage, vehicle use, electricity generation...
Don't worry about fuel storage. You are unlikely to ever be able to
replenish it in any meaningful amount anyways. And if you *can* replenish
it, the storage is redundant. For this same reason, don't worry with
gas/diesel generators. They'll just burn up your fuel and be dead weight.
Instead, get a solar setup for your house. With a back-up battery this
will give you electricity even if the grid goes down. It will also let you
charge an electric car. If you are in need of mobile mains power, a couple
300 watt panels and a Bluetti power station is your best option. Don't
use lead-acid batteries for storage. They simply degrade too fast. A good
li-ion setup, although more expensive will last much longer with much
better energy density.
And, because I've been harping on it this whole time, all these bits are
basically unreplacable (aside from salvaging other systems for parts).
They should last you 15-20 years though, and if you haven't figured out a
replacement by then, you're doing it wrong.
On pedal crank chargers, unless you have a ROBUST food supply, don't. Do
not. You are expending personal energy for electrical energy. And that
personal energy is coming from your food. Instead hook it to a windmill or
water wheel.
Your digital section here is the one bit I can just nod along with. Expect
to lose the internet. Expect to lose mains power. Expect to have the only
information available to you that which you have saved.
But don't forget to visit your local library too.
Medical
This, again, runs into being a very short term solution. The advice isn't
inherently wrong, but when your meds are gone, they are gone. Make sure to
study up on first aid and emergency trauma response. Also find out what
local plants make at least passible substitutes. This is, in fact, one of
those skills that is in-depth enough that you will likely want to have at
least one person dedicated to it and it alone. There's a reason villages
had "the healer" and not just everybody trained in first aid.